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What are the main normative arguments for majority rule on alternatives? They primarily [include] a procedural argument which is May's theorem , an epistemic argument which is Condorcet's jury theorem , a utilitarian argument which is the Rae-Taylor theorem , a Contractarian argument , and a statistical argument basically the median voter theorem.
These arguments were collected from pretty standard work. The statistical argument is this: Approval voting maximizes a measure of central tendency.
On the other hand, with approval voting, you don't need all of that. You can use a very simple set theoretic measurement.
Each voter is a set, and if a voter approves of a particular alternative, then that alternative belongs to that voter set.
If they don't approve of it, it doesn't belong to their set. So basically, the approval winner is the candidate who occurs at the largest intersection of sets.
The important [point that emerges from] all of these technical theorems is that for all of the main arguments [that apply to] majority rule for two alternatives, we can generalize very easily to multiple alternatives with approval voting.
Now I'm going to move into some of the real-world implications of this. Because of the Citizens United ruling in the United States back in , we basically have nomination processes that have large numbers of candidates in presidential elections.
That increases the chances — because we use plurality voting — that the candidate who wins has only a small base of support.
The best example of this is the presidential election. For a lot of people, this might be the most important slide of the day, so I'm going to go into detail about this data.
I should mention that I got this idea from Mohit Shetty, who wrote a piece about the election in the Huffington Post. For example, when the poll was taken in March , there were 14 Republican candidates.
The population sample for these polls was drawn from Republican voters, so it's representative of the national population of Republican voters.
If we look at the plurality-voting contest, from July [onward], he's always in first place. But if you look at [whom voters are willing to support, i.
Keep in mind that in the very beginning of May , Trump won the nomination because he had won enough delegates.
So the March and April polls were basically the last ones before that. So plurality voting and approval voting are two different generalizations of majority rule, and they lead to two very opposite outcomes.
This is why voting systems really matter. Another thing I want to emphasize is that [approval voting is] ideologically neutral. In , approval voting probably would have helped the Republican candidate win.
I want to make a prediction that you can hold me accountable to: Given the plurality structure and the nomination process, I'm predicting that for the Democratic nomination for president, no candidate will receive a majority of regular delegates.
I think that the decision will be made either by non-elected super delegates or by a contested convention. If people are forced to vote in a particular way, it doesn't matter which aggregation function is used.
I'm going to talk about a lot of this with respect to intelligence explosion hypotheses, but it's not dependent on those.
Ray Kurzweil is a director of engineering at Google and probably the most famous proponent of intelligence explosion. Among his several predictions, two are basically that 1 knowledge and technology growth are accelerating, and 2 that human lifespans can be indefinitely extended into the future.
What's also interesting is that Condorcet [came to that conclusion] in the s. What's even more interesting is that he mathematically modeled it with his Jury theorem.
So how does this theorem go? The Jury theorem says that as you increase the number of agents, the probability that the majority is correct approaches the numeral 1.
So basically, what Condorcet said was we want to make society into a multi-agent system that's accelerating towards judgment. Therefore, we need institutional change.
He believed that we need to improve honesty in society, and that we shouldn't [tolerate] dishonesty except when it improves honesty in the long run.
Condorcet wanted [more] independent thinking. One of my favorite examples [of the changes he advocated involves voting].
When masses of people voted, he didn't want them to meet in assembly. He thought they should vote by mail, because he believed that if people meet in assembly, then they form parties.
And if they form parties, then they're going to stop thinking independently. That would have been more likely by mail, because back then, long-distance communication was difficult.
Another thing that Condorcet argued was that regardless of race, sex, or sexuality, everybody should be allowed to vote.
This would increase the number of voters and let us get closer to the axiomatic approach [where the probability of a correct majority decision becomes 1].
The math isn't discussed in Sketch , and that's why it has taken so long for people to figure this out.
But Sketch is probably his most famous philosophical work. In it, he basically argues that societies that tend to fulfill the Jury theorem, or at least have institutions that promote the conditions of the Jury theorem, tend to be ones where knowledge and technology grow at a fast rate.
Sites that don't have this property, like late-antiquity European societies, tend to have reversed or slowed growth in knowledge and technology. There are several people who have generalized the Jury theorem.
I've given you a set of these people and they have very excellent papers, which I encourage you to look at if you get the chance.
But I think we should focus less on trying to generalize the Jury theorem, and more on [its application to] multi-agent systems.
He developed several theorems in terms of information aggregation. An example showing how the multi-agent framework is helpful, I think, is a preschool.
Let's say you have a class of preschoolers — three-year-olds. You also have an adult teacher. If you see this placeholder for a long time, file an error report at the error reporting page.
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A rational group can thus be defined as a group in which all elements are rational elements. For any element of infinite order, the element and its inverse must be conjugate.
If has infinite order, then must be conjugate to. Dihedral group:D8.
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